GOOD MORNING!!!
INDICES BEGAN THE DAY ON A SOMBER NOTE AS NEGATIVE NEWS FLOWS FROM THE ARAB WORLD SPOOKED SENTIMENTS NOT ONLY LOCALLY BUT THROUGHOUT THE ASIA AS WELL. THE BOURSES HAD TO DEAL WITH GEOPOLITICAL RISKS THROUGHOUT THE DAY PROTESTS IN LIBYA AGAINST THE COUNTRY'S LEADER OF 41 YEARS, MUAMMAR GADDAFI INTENSIFIED, WITH SEVERAL CASUALTIES BEING REPORTED IN THE NATION. THE INDEX GYRATED BELOW THE NEUTRAL LINE IN A NARROW BAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OPTIMISTIC MARKET TRIGGERS. BUT THE SECOND HALF SAW THE FRONTLINE INDICES BEING DRAGGED TO LOWER THAN COMFORTABLE LEVELS AS INVESTORS SQUARED OF POSITIONS IN AUTO SHARES ON SPECULATIONS OF A HIKE IN EXCISE DUTY IN THE BUDGET 2011 WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO BE ANNOUNCED THREE WORKING DAYS LATER. MARKETS ARE EXTREMELY FRAGILE AND DISCOURAGING GLOBAL SETUP AND SETTLED THE DAY WITH MODERATE LOSSES GIVEN THE FACT THAT MAJOR ASIAN STOCK MARKETS INCLUDING CHINA AND JAPAN GOT BUTCHERED AROUND TWO PERCENTAGE POINTS. OIL PRICES SEEMED TO CONTROL THE MARKET MOVEMENT IN TRADE AS WITH EVERY SPIKE IN THE GLOBAL PRICES OF CRUDE FOLLOWING ESCALATING CIVIL UPHEAVAL IN LIBYA AND BAHRAIN, THE NERVOUSNESS AMONG TRADERS TRANSLATED INTO POSITION SQUARING. INDIAN CRUDE OIL BASKET HAS SPURTED BEYOND THE PSYCHOLOGICAL $100 PER BARREL LEVEL AS PROTESTS IN LIBYA, ONE OF THE 10 RICHEST OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES, ESCALATED WHILE SUPPLY SIDE PRESSURES THREATENED TO BECOME MORE ACUTE. THANKS TO MUKESH AMBANI FOR THE DEAL WITH BP WHICH REINFORCED THE INDEX HEAVYWEIGHT BY AROUND 3% AND THEREBY CAPPING THE DOWNSIDE RISKS FOR THE INDEX.
TODAY NIFTY WOULD OPEN NEGATIVE TRACKING WEAK CLOSING OF US MARKETS AND EUROPEAN MARKETS ALONG WITH WEAK OPENING OF ASIAN INDICES. TODAY IF NIFTY TRADES BELOW 5464 LIKELY TO COME DOWN TO 5440 AND THEN TO 5420 LEVELS ANY BREAK BELOW THIS POINT WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO 5400 LEVELS WHICH IS A PSYCHOLOGICAL SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY BUT BREAK BELOW THIS LEVEL WOULD TAKE SUPPORT AROUND 5385 WHICH IS CONSIDERED TO BE NEAR TERM SUPPORT WHERE NIFTY MAY NOT BREAK BELOW THIS POINT IN THIS SETTLEMENT BUT IF IT HAPPENS TO BREAK THEN WE CAN SEE NIFTY TO COME DOWN MUCH MORE IN THIS TWO DAYS OF TRADE. ON THE FLIP SIDE IF NIFTY TRADES ABOVE 5478 THEN LIKELY TO MOVE UP TO 5500 AND ANY BREAK ABOVE THIS POINT WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO 5544 LEVELS, ANY CLOSE ABOVE 5500 WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO CLOSE ABOVE 5500 LEVELS IN THE SETTLEMENT.
TODAY NIFTY WOULD OPEN NEGATIVE TRACKING WEAK CLOSING OF US MARKETS AND EUROPEAN MARKETS ALONG WITH WEAK OPENING OF ASIAN INDICES. TODAY IF NIFTY TRADES BELOW 5464 LIKELY TO COME DOWN TO 5440 AND THEN TO 5420 LEVELS ANY BREAK BELOW THIS POINT WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO 5400 LEVELS WHICH IS A PSYCHOLOGICAL SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY BUT BREAK BELOW THIS LEVEL WOULD TAKE SUPPORT AROUND 5385 WHICH IS CONSIDERED TO BE NEAR TERM SUPPORT WHERE NIFTY MAY NOT BREAK BELOW THIS POINT IN THIS SETTLEMENT BUT IF IT HAPPENS TO BREAK THEN WE CAN SEE NIFTY TO COME DOWN MUCH MORE IN THIS TWO DAYS OF TRADE. ON THE FLIP SIDE IF NIFTY TRADES ABOVE 5478 THEN LIKELY TO MOVE UP TO 5500 AND ANY BREAK ABOVE THIS POINT WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO 5544 LEVELS, ANY CLOSE ABOVE 5500 WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO CLOSE ABOVE 5500 LEVELS IN THE SETTLEMENT.
