GOOD MORNING!!!
KEY BENCHMARK INDICES, SENSEX AND NIFTY CLOSED FLAT WITH MARGINAL LOSS AND GAIN. SENSEX GAINED ALMOST 310 POINTS FROM DAY LOW AND CLOSED 70 POINTS FROM DAY HIGH. INDEX HEAVY WEIGHTS RELIANCE INDUSTRIES AND ONGC GAINED IN THE LAST DAY THERE WAS SHORT RECOVERY SEEN IN RELIANCE AND ONGC COUNTERS. MARKET BREADTH WAS VERY NEGATIVE INITIALLY WITH THE INITIAL SELL OFF IN THE OPENING WITH WEAK GLOBAL CUES AND LATER REGAINED THE STRENGTH SLOWLY AND THERE BY CONVERTING INTO A POSITIVE MOMENTUM IN THE TRADE. THE VOLATALITY IN THE TRADE WAS VERY HIGH AHEAD OF EXPIRY.
FEW MAJOR REASONS TO LOOK AT THE MARKETS BOTH ON THE NEGATIVE AND POSITIVE SIDE ARE:
NEGATIVE SIDE:
1. FII'S SELL OFF HAS WEAKENED THE SENTIMENT OF INVESTORS.
2. GLOBAL CUES, WE HAVE SEEN AFTER ABOUT 2 MONTHS WALL STREET HAS SUFFERED WORST HIT BY LOOSING 200 POINTS IN A SINGLE DAY ON FRIDAY.
3. CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION HAS DAMPENED THE SENTIMENT OF INVESTORS TOO.
4. WEAK INITIAL PHASE MANSOON HAS GEARED UP THE FEARS OF FALL IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND A SURGE IN ESSENTIAL COMMODITY PRICES WHICH MAY SPUR INFLATION, THIS MAY LEAVE AN IMPACT ON THE LIKELY RECOVERY OF OUR ECONOMY.
ON THE POSITIVE SIDE:
1. WORLD BANK HAS RAISED INDIA'S GROWTH FORECAST FOR 2009 TO 5.1% FROM EARLIER PROJECTION OF 4% AND 8% IN 2010 WHICH WILL MAKE IT THE FASTEST GROWING ECONOMIES IN THE WORLD IN 2010, SURPASSING THE CHINA'S EXPECTED 7.7% GROWTH.
2. THE MAJOR TRIGGER IN THE INDIAN MARKETS ARE BUDGETS, THIS MAY HAVE A VERY CLEAR IMPACT ON THE MARKETS.
KEY BENCHMARK INDICES, SENSEX AND NIFTY CLOSED FLAT WITH MARGINAL LOSS AND GAIN. SENSEX GAINED ALMOST 310 POINTS FROM DAY LOW AND CLOSED 70 POINTS FROM DAY HIGH. INDEX HEAVY WEIGHTS RELIANCE INDUSTRIES AND ONGC GAINED IN THE LAST DAY THERE WAS SHORT RECOVERY SEEN IN RELIANCE AND ONGC COUNTERS. MARKET BREADTH WAS VERY NEGATIVE INITIALLY WITH THE INITIAL SELL OFF IN THE OPENING WITH WEAK GLOBAL CUES AND LATER REGAINED THE STRENGTH SLOWLY AND THERE BY CONVERTING INTO A POSITIVE MOMENTUM IN THE TRADE. THE VOLATALITY IN THE TRADE WAS VERY HIGH AHEAD OF EXPIRY.
FEW MAJOR REASONS TO LOOK AT THE MARKETS BOTH ON THE NEGATIVE AND POSITIVE SIDE ARE:
NEGATIVE SIDE:
1. FII'S SELL OFF HAS WEAKENED THE SENTIMENT OF INVESTORS.
2. GLOBAL CUES, WE HAVE SEEN AFTER ABOUT 2 MONTHS WALL STREET HAS SUFFERED WORST HIT BY LOOSING 200 POINTS IN A SINGLE DAY ON FRIDAY.
3. CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION HAS DAMPENED THE SENTIMENT OF INVESTORS TOO.
4. WEAK INITIAL PHASE MANSOON HAS GEARED UP THE FEARS OF FALL IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND A SURGE IN ESSENTIAL COMMODITY PRICES WHICH MAY SPUR INFLATION, THIS MAY LEAVE AN IMPACT ON THE LIKELY RECOVERY OF OUR ECONOMY.
ON THE POSITIVE SIDE:
1. WORLD BANK HAS RAISED INDIA'S GROWTH FORECAST FOR 2009 TO 5.1% FROM EARLIER PROJECTION OF 4% AND 8% IN 2010 WHICH WILL MAKE IT THE FASTEST GROWING ECONOMIES IN THE WORLD IN 2010, SURPASSING THE CHINA'S EXPECTED 7.7% GROWTH.
2. THE MAJOR TRIGGER IN THE INDIAN MARKETS ARE BUDGETS, THIS MAY HAVE A VERY CLEAR IMPACT ON THE MARKETS.
IN TODAYS TRADE WE EXPECT NIFTY TO REMAIN HIGHLY VOLATILE AND RANGE BOUND, WE STILL HAVE BEARISH VIEW ON NIFTY UNTILL IT CROSSES 4320, ONE CAN TAKE POSITIONS ONLY IF IT BREACHES THIS LEVEL AND CLOSES UNTILL THEN ONE IS ADVICED TO STAY SHORT. IF NIFTY TRADES ABOVE 4280 THEN WE CAN SEE STRONG RESISTANCE AT 4320 AND ON THE DOWNSIDE IF NIFTY TRADES BELOW 4220 THEN WE SEE NEXT MAJOR SUPPORT AT 4180 ONCE NIFTY BREAKS 4160 THEN WE CAN SEE MORE DOWNFALL IN THE MARKETS AND EVEN LEAD TO 4100-3950. METALS BANKING LOOK WEAK, SHIPPING & PSU'S LOOKS STRONG. ONE CAN KEEP ACCUMULATING STOCKS LIKE NTPC, IDFC AND BHEL AT LOWER LEVELS FOR MINTING MONEY ON POST BUDGET SESSION.
BUY ONGC ABOVE 1025 SL 1014 TGT 1039/1052
BUY IDFC 136 SL 132 TGT 142/144
BUY ESSAR OIL ABOVE 164 SL 160.4 TGT 170/172
SELL NALCO BELOW 315 SL 321 TGT 308/304
SELL HDFC BANK BELOW 1485 SL 1501 TGT 1461/1452/1440
