INTRADAY TIPS FOR 03 MARCH 2011

GOOD MORNING!!!

MARKETS BEGAN THE DAY ON A POWERFUL NOTE TRACKING CUES FROM THE ASIAN MARKETS WHICH CLIMBED AFTER INVESTORS TURNED OPTIMISTIC ON THE BACK OF OPTIMISTIC LEADS FROM THE OVERNIGHT US MARKETS AND DECLINE IN CRUDE PRICES. MARKETS STARTED ON A FIRM NOTE AND SCALED HIGHER AND HIGHER AS THE DAY PROGRESSED, MARKETS GATHERED STRENGTH TO STRENGTH AND THERE WAS COMPLETE ABSENCE OF PROFIT BOOKING WHICH HAS FURTHER IGNITED MARKETS TO REACH HIGHER HIGHS IN THE MARKET AND REGISTERED THE BIGGEST INTRADAY GAINS IN THE YEAR, THE MARKET BREADTH WAS EXTREMELY OPTIMISTIC. ALL-IN-ALL A FANTASTIC DAY FOR THE MARKETS.

TODAY MARKETS WOULD OPEN FLAT AND REMAIN RANGE BOUND INITIALLY. IF NIFTY TRADES ABOVE 5556 THEN LIKELY TO MOVE UP TO 5590 LEVELS AND BREAK ABOVE THIS POINT NIFTY WOULD PHASE RESISTANCE AROUND 5600 LEVELS AND TRADE ABOVE 5600 LEVELS WOULD TAKE IT TO 5642 LEVELS AND ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE IF NIFTY TRADES BELOW 5530 LEVELS WE CAN SEE NIFTY TO COME DOWN TO 5490 LEVELS AND TRADE BELOW THIS LEVEL WOULD DRAG NIFTY DOWN TO 5450 LEVELS ONE HAS TO STAY CAUTIOUS IF NIFTY TRADES BELOW 5450. KEY POINT IN NIFTY WHICH ONE SHOULD REMEMBER IS NIFTY STILL DIDN’T CATCH THE STRENGTH AS THE UNDERTONE STILL REMAINS BEARISH ONE HAS TO BE VERY CAUTIOUS IN THE NIFTY WE ARE LIKELY TO HEAD DOWN.

BUY JSWSTEEL SL 937 TGT 960/974/988
BUY RECLTD ABOVE 251 SL 248 TGT 255/259/265
SELL UNION BANK BELOW 323 SL 329 TGT 321/317/314 (VERY SHORT TERM 300)

INTRADAY TIPS FOR 01 MARCH 2011

GOOD MORNING!!!

MARKETS BEGAN THE DAY ON A POSITIVE NOTE AHEAD OF BUDGET WHICH WAS EARLIER SUPPORTED WITH POSITIVE US MARKETS. FRONTLINE COUNTERS CAPITALIZED THE MOMENTUM AS FINANCE MINISTER TABLED THE PROGRESSIVE AND BALANCED UNION BUDGET 2011-12 IN THE LOK SABHA. SOON AFTER FM’S SPEECH THE MARKETS RALLIED AROUND 600 POINTS IN A EUPHORIC ATMOSPHERE AS PARTICIPANTS RESORTED TO HEFTY BUYING. HOWEVER, THE INDICES SOON COULDN’T HOLD THE GAINS AND WENT INTO TAILSPIN AS THE FINER PRINT BECAME CLEARER AND THE FORCE OF PROFIT-BOOKING AT HIGHER LEVELS TOOK ITS TOLL. IT WAS COMPLETE ROLLER-COASTER RIDE IN THE MARKETS FOR THE TRADERS. THERE WAS OVER 400 POINTS SWING IN NIFTY WHICH, EVENTUALLY ENDED WITH MODERATE GAINS. THE MARKET BREADTH WAS POSITIVE.

BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS

BUDGET ON THE WHOLE – GST & DTC ROAD MAP ANNOUNCED ( POSITIVE FOR ECONOMY ) - FISC GAP, MKT BORROW NUMBERS BEATS MARKET EXPECTATIONS BUT LOOKS LIKE TOO OPTIMISTIC STILL THERE ARE DOUBTS WHETHER IT WOULD BE MET.

KEY TAKEAWAYS OF UNION BUDGET FOR 2011-12

GROWTH

* INDIAN ECONOMY SEEN GROWING 9% IN 2011-12, +/- 0.5%

* SEE FY11 GDP GROWTH AT 8.6%

* INDIA ECON GROWTH SEEN 8.75-9.25% FY12

* APR-JAN IMPORTS $273.6 BLN, UP 17.6%

* FY11 SERVICES SECTOR GROWTH SEEN 9.6%

* SEE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR GROWTH 8.1% IN FY11

* FY11 FARM GROWTH SEEN 5.4%

* FY11 FISCAL CONSOLIDATION IMPRESSIVE

* STRONGER FISCAL CONSOLIDATION NEEDED

* FY11 GROWTH SWIFT, BROAD-BASED

* INDIA ECON BACK TO PRE-CRISIS GROWTH TRAJECTORY

* SERVICES SECTOR CONTINUES TO GROW NEAR DOUBLE DIGITS

* DON'T SEE RESOURCES AS BIG PROBLEM, AT LEAST IN SHORT TERM

* IMPLEMENTATION GAP A KEY CHALLENGE

* "MUCH STILL NEEDS TO BE DONE", ESPECIALLY IN RURAL INDIA

* NEED TO IMPROVE SUPPLY OF AGRICULTURE TO MEET DEMAND

* NEED TO ENSURE SUSTAINED PRIVATE INVESTMENT

* ECONOMY RESILIENT TO EXTERNAL SHOCKS

* AUTO SECTOR GROWTH SEEN 30% IN FY11

* TO UP MANUFACTURING SHARE IN GDP TO 25% IN 10 YR VS 16%.

INFLATION

* FOOD INFLATION 9.3% IN JAN BUT STILL REMAINS A CONCERN

* MUST ADDRESS STRUCTURAL CONCERNS ON INFLATION MANAGEMENT

* EXPECT RBI MEASURES TO MODERATE INFLATION IN COMING MOS

* SEE AVERAGE INFLATION TO LOWER IN FY11

* HIGH FOOD PRICES REVEAL SHORTCOMING IN DISTRIBUTION

* WHOLESALE AND RETAIL PRICE DIFFERENCE NOT ACCEPTABLE

* CONSUMERS DENIED FALL IN PRICES USUALLY SEEN IN WINTER

* ONION, MAIZE, POULTRY PRICES HIGH IN SECOND HALF FY10

* INFLATION PERSISTS IN TWO DISTINCTIVE AREAS

* FOOD INFLATION 20.2% IN FEB .

FY12 OUTLAYS

* FY12 TOTAL SPEND 12.5 TRLN RUPEE

* TOTAL EXPENDITURE ESTIMATED AT 1.26 TRLN RUPEES IN FY12

* FY12 NON-PLAN SPEND 8.16 TRLN RUPEES, UP 10.9%

* FY12 PLAN SPEND 4.41 TRLN RUPEES, UP 18.3%

* 1.47 TRLN RUPEES GRANTS IN AID FY12

* TO PROVIDE 10 BLN RUPEES FOR JUSTICE DEPT IN FY12

* ALLOCATED 691.99 BLN RUPEE FOR DEFENCE CAPEX FY12

* ALLOCATED 1.64 TRLN RUPEE FOR DEFENCE FY12

* BACKWARD REGION GRANT FUND ALLOCATION UP AT 98.9 BLN RUPEE

* 1 BLN RUPEE FOR JAMMU, LADAKH PROJECTS FY12

* TO GIVE 80 BLN RUPEES FOR J&K DEVELOPMENT NEEDS

* ALLOCATED 80 BLN RUPEE FOR NORTHEAST, SPECIAL STATES

* ALLOCATED 2 BLN RUPEE FOR CLEAN ENERGY FUND

* 2 BLN RUPEES FOR CLEANUP OF IMPORTANT LAKES, RIVERS

* FY12 EDUCATION SECTOR ALLOCATION 520.57 BLN RUPEES

* ALLOCATION FOR SCHEDULED TRIBES HIKED TO 2.44 BLN RUPEE

* 2011-12 BHARAT NIRMAN ALLOCATION UP TO 580 BLN RUPEES

* ALLOCATED 1.61 TRLN RUPEES FOR SOCIAL SECTOR FY12

* ADDITIONAL 5 BLN RUPEE TO NATIONAL SKILL DEVELOPMENT FUND

* FY12 SARVA SHIKSHA ABHIYAN ALLOCATION 210 BLN RUPEES

* TO GIVE 210 BLN RUPEE FOR LITERACY MISSION FY12, UP 40%

* FY12 ALLOCATION FOR HEALTH 267.60 BLN RUPEES, UP 20%

* TO GIVE PSU BANKS 201.57 BLN RUPEE FOR TIER-I CAPITAL FY12

* TO GIVE 60 BLN RUPEE FY12 TO HELP PSU BKS' TIER 2 CAPITAL

* 3 BLN RUPEE TO STATES TO ROLL OUT E-STAMPING IN 3 YRS .

DIRECT TAX

* REVENUE LOSS FROM DIRECT TAX AT 115 BLN RUPEES

* MAT RAISED TO 18.5%

* SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES TO COME UNDER MAT

* CUT SURCHARGE ON DOMESTIC COS TO 5% FROM 7.5%

* 80 YRS AND ABOVE INDIVIDUALS TAX EXEMPT UPTO 500,000 RUPEE

* I-T EXEMPTION FOR SENIOR CITIZENS 250,000 RUPEES

* SENIOR CITIZEN TAX LIMIT NOW FOR 60 YEAR OLDS

* UP TAX EXEMPTION TO 180,000 RUPEES FY12

* NON-TAX RECEIPTS ESTIMATED AT 1.25 TRLN RUPEES IN FY12

* NET TAX TO CENTRE 6.64 TRLN RUPEES IN FY12

* FY12 NON TAX REVENUE 1.25 TRLN RUPEES

* FY12 GROSS TAX RECEIPTS 9.32 TRLN RUPEES, UP 24.9%

* TO INTRODUCE SIMPLER RETURNS FORM FOR PRESUMPTIVE TAX

* NO TAX RETURNS FOR SOME SALARIED PEOPLE SOON

* TWO MORE CENTRAL PROCESSING CENTRES FOR INCOME TAX FY12

* INVEST-LINKED DEDUCTION FOR AFFORDABLE HOUSING PROJECTS

* TAX SOP FOR 20,000 RUPEE INVEST IN INFRA BOND STAYS

* LOW WITHHOLDING TAX OF 5% FOR NOTIFIED INFRA FUNDS

* I-T DEDUCTION FOR INFRA BOND INVEST EXTENDED BY 1 YEAR

* FOREIGN DIVIDEND TAX RATE CUT TO 15% FOR INDIAN COS .

DEFICIT

* FY11 REVENUE DEFICIT SEEN AT 2.3% OF GDP, FY12 AT 1.8%

* AIM FISCAL DEFICIT OF 3% OF STATE GDP BY FY14

* FISCAL DEFICIT TARGET 4.1% OF GDP IN FY13, 3.5% FY14

* PEGS FY12 FISCAL DEFICIT AT 4.6% OF GDP

* FY11 FISCAL DEFICIT REVISED TO 5.1% OF GDP

* CURRENT ACCT DEFICIT AROUND FY09 LEVELS IS A CONCERN

* CURRENT ACCT GAP A CONCERN DUE TO COMPOSITION OF FX FLOW

* COUNTER-CYCLICAL FISCAL STEPS BEST BET VS EXTERNAL SHOCKS .

TAX REFORMS

* DIRECT TAXES CODE TO BE EFFECTIVE APR 1, 2012

* ROLLOUT OF DIRECT TAX CODE TO BE EFFECTIVE APR 1, 2012

* TAKING STEPS TO SIMPLIFY TAX, TARIFF PROCEDURES

* ROLLOUT OF DIRECT TAX CODE, GST TO MARK A WATERSHED

* WILL INTRODUCE GST BILL IN CURRENT SESSION

* PREPARATIONS FOR GST ROLLOUT IN FINAL STAGES

* GST ROLLOUT TO BE KEY FACTOR IN ECON DEVELOPMENT

* NSDL CHOSEN TECH PARTNER FOR GST IMPLEMENTATION

* GST DIALOGUE WITH STATES HAS MADE CONSIDERABLE PROGRESS

* SCHEME PROPOSED FOR QUICKER REFUND OF SERVICE TAX

* TO INTRODUCE SELF-ASSESSMENT IN CUSTOMS FOR FAST CLEARANCE

* PSUS TO ISSUE TAX-FREE BONDS WORTH 300 BLN RUPEE FY12

* PROPOSALS OF NATL RESOURCES PRICING PANEL LIKELY IN 3 MOS

* TO GIVE RAIL 100 BLN RUPEE FOR TAX-FREE INFRA BONDS FY12

* TO GIVE IRFC 100 BLN RUPEE FOR TAX-FREE INFRA BONDS FY12

* TO GIVE NHAI 100 BLN RUPEE FOR TAX-FREE INFRA BONDS FY12

* TO ALLOW 300 BLN RUPEES FOR TAX-FREE INFRA BONDS FY12

INFRASTRUCTURE

* INFRA SECTOR FII CAP FOR BONDS WITH 5 YR RESIDUAL MATURITY

* FII LIMIT IN INFRA SECTOR RAISED TO $25 BLN

* FERTILISER SECTOR INVESTMENT TO BE GIVEN INFRA STATUS

* 50 BLN RUPEES FOR TAKEOUT FINANCING SCHEME

* TAKEOUT FINANCING PLAN IMPLEMENTED IN 7 INFRA PROJECTS

* TO GIVE COMPREHENSIVE PVT-PUBLIC PARTNER POLICY FOR INFRA

* IIFCL FY12 DISBURSEMENT AIM 250 BLN RUPEE VS 200 BLN FY11

* PPP MODEL FOR CREATING PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE SUCCESSFUL

* ALLOCATION OF 2.14 TRLN RUPEES FOR INFRA SECTOR FY12

* FARM SECTOR COS TO GET INVEST DEDUCTION FOR CAPEX

* INVEST-LINKED DEDUCTIONS FOR FERTILISER COS .

SUBSIDY

* TO MOVE TO DIRECT TRANSFER OF FERT SUBSIDY IN PHASED WAY

* TO MOVE TO DIRECT TRANSFER OF CASH SUBSIDY ON KEROSENE

* TO MOVE TO DIRECT TRANSFER OF OIL SUBSIDY IN PHASED MANNER

* AIM DIRECT CASH SUBSIDY FOR FERT, KEROSENE BY MAR 2012

* THERE IS LARGE SCALE DIVERSION OF SUBSIDISED KEROSENE OIL

* DIRECT TRANSFER OF CASH SUBSIDY FOR POOR .

DIVESTMENT

* GOVT TO RAISE 400 BLN RUPEES FROM DIVESTMENT IN FY12

* INTEND TO MAINTAIN DIVEST MOMENTUM IN FY12

* BROADBASING OF CENTRAL PSU OWNERSHIP HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL

* RESCHEDULED SOME DIVEST PLANS THIS FY.

FARM & FOOD

* NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY BILL TO BE TABLED THIS YEAR

* FARM CREDIT FLOW TARGET 4.75 TRLN RUPEES FY12

* PROPOSE TO PROMOTE ORGANIC FARMING METHODS

* HAVE TO SUSTAIN FARM PRODUCTIVITY IN LONG TERM

* TO GIVE 3 BLN RUPEE TO UP OUTPUT OF NUTRI-CEREALS

* 3 BLN RUPEES FOR ANIMAL-BASED PROTEIN PRODUCTION

* 3 BLN RUPEE TO BRING 60,000 HA UNDER PALM OIL PLANTATION

* TO LAUNCH NATL PROTEIN MISSION WITH 3 BLN RUPEE CORPUS

* 3 BLN RUPEES FOR HIGHER PRODUCTION OF MILLETS

* TO PROVIDE 3 BLN RUPEES TO RAISE VEGETABLE PRODUCTION

* 4 BLN RUPEES TO EASTERN STATES FOR GREEN REVOLUTION

* SEE 16.5 MLN TN PULSES OUTPUT THIS YEAR

* TO GIVE 3 BLN RUPEES TO PROMOTE PULSES PRODUCTION, MKTING

* TO GIVE 3 BLN RUPEE TO 6,000 VILLAGES FOR PULSES FARMING

* TO SET UP 5 BLN RUPEE WOMEN SELF HELP DEVELOPMENT FUND

* FARM DEVELOPMENT PLAN ALLOCATION HIKED TO 78.6 BLN RUPEE

* REMOVING BOTTLENECKS IN FRUITS, VEGETABLES, POULTRY SUPPLY

* MULLING NUTRIENT-BASED SUBSIDY POLICY FOR UREA

* FARM GOODS STORAGE CAPACITY NEEDS AUGMENTATION

* APPROVAL TO SET UP 15 MORE MEGA FOOD PARKS IN FY12

* TO CREATE 4 MLN TN MORE FOOD GRAIN STORAGE BY MAR 2012

* FOOD INFLATION EXPOSES FLAW IN SUPPLY-CHAIN MANAGEMENT

* STATES NEED TO REVIEW, REVAMP FARM PRODUCE MARKETING ACTS

* COLD STORAGE INVESTMENT TO GET VIABILITY GAP FUNDING .

RURAL, SOCIAL SECTOR

* TO SET UP MORTGAGE RISK GUARANTEE FUND FOR RURAL HOUSING

* 5 BLN RUPEES CAPITAL INFUSION FOR REGIONAL RURAL BKS FY12

* 100 BLN RUPEE TO NABARD FOR SHORT-TERM RURAL CREDIT FUND

* TO INFUSE 30 BLN RUPEES IN NABARD IN PHASED MANNER

* 3% INTEREST SUBVENTION TO FARMERS REPAYING LOANS ON TIME

* INTEREST RATE SUBVENTION FOR FARM LOANS EXTENDED TO FY12

* RURAL HOUSING FUND CORPUS HIKED TO 30 BLN RUPEES VS 20 BLN

* NABARD TO GET 30 BLN RUPEES TO HELP HANDLOOM WEAVERS FY12

* OVER 2,000 POPULATION VILLAGES TO HAVE BANKS

* SIGNIFICANTLY SCALED UP FLOW OF RESOURCES IN RURAL AREAS

* RURAL INFRA DEVELOPMENT FUND RAISED TO 180 BLN RUPEE FY12

* RURAL BROADBAND CONNECTIVITY TO ALL VILLAGES IN 3 YEARS

* 2.2 MLN ANGANWADI WORKERS TO BENEFIT FROM PAY HIKE

* ANGANWADI WORKERS WAGES DOUBLED TO 3,000 RUPEE/MO

* ANGANWADI HELPERS WAGE DOUBLED TO 1,500 RUPEES/MO

* BANKS TO COVER 20,000 VILLAGES FOR OPENING ACCTS FY11

* RIDF CORPUS INCREASED TO CREATE WAREHOUSING CAPACITY

* RIDF CORPUS 180 BLN RUPEES FY12 VS 160 BLN FY11

* CUT BPL PENSION SCHEME QUALIFY AGE TO 60 YRS FROM 65 YRS

* PENSION FOR OVER 80-YR-OLDS HIKED TO 500 RUPEES/MO

* TO GIVE 1 MLN UNIQUE IDS/DAY FROM OCT

* TO SET UP SELF HELP DEVELOPMENT GROUP FUND OF 5 BLN RUPEE

* MINORITIES' LOAN TARGET UP AT 15% OF PRIORITY LOAN FOR BKS

* MULLING FRAMEWORK TO PROTECT INTEREST OF SMALL BORROWERS

* OLD AGE PENSION PLAN ELIGIBILITY AGE CUT TO 60 YR VS 65 YR

* NREGA WAGE RATE TO BE INDEXED TO CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

* UNORGANISED WORKERS TO BENEFIT FROM HEALTH INSURANCE PLAN

* SCHOLARSHIP SCHEME TO BENEFIT 4 MLN SC, ST STUDENTS

* SCHOLARSHIP PLAN FOR SC/ST STUDENTS IN CLASS IX, X

* GOVT CONTRIBUTION IN OLD AGE PENSION RAISED TO 5 YR FROM 3

* TO ENUMERATE CASTE IN SEPARATE CENSUS BEGINNING JUNE

MISCELLANEOUS

* TO INTRODUCE PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT BILL IN FY11

* TO BRING BILL TO ENABLE RBI TO GRANT MORE BANKING LICENSES

* NEW COMPANIES BILL TO BE INTRODUCED IN CURRENT SESSION

* 1% INTEREST SUBVENTION ON HOME LOAN UP TO 1.5 MLN RUPEE

* UPPED PRIORITY HOME LOAN LIMIT TO 2.5 MLN RUPEE VS 2 MLN

* SEE FY11 BUDGET TRANSITION FOR MORE TRANSPARENT INDIA

* TO SET UP INDIA MICROFIN EQUITY FUND OF 1 BLN RUPEES

* TO SET UP 7 NEW MEGA PROJECTS FOR LEATHER FY12

* IMPLEMENTING 5-POINT PLAN TO TACKLE BLACK MONEY MENACE

* FINANCE MINISTRY BEGAN STUDY OF UNACCOUNTED INCOME

* ENFORCEMENT DIRECTORATE STRENGTH INCREASED THREE-FOLD

* ALIGARH MUSLIM UNIV MURSHIDABAD UNIT TO GET 500 MLN RUPEE

* ALIGARH MUSLIM UNIV KERALA CENTRE TO GET 500 MLN RUPEES

* 2 BLN RUPEE ONE TIME GRANT TO IIT KHARAGPUR FY12

* ALLOCATED 100 MLN RUPEES TO DELHI SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS

* NATL KNOWLEDGE NETWORK TO LINK 1,500 INSTITUTES BY MAR '12

* SOME CHALLENGES NEED URGENT ATTENTION IN SHORT TERM

* CORRUPTION IS A PROBLEM WE HAVE TO FIGHT COLLECTIVELY

* HOPE STATES WILL REFORM THEIR FRBM POLICY

* NEED TO SEIZE OPPORTUNITY TO BOOST REGULATORY STANDARDS

* REACHING THE END OF A REMARKABLE FISCAL YEAR

* TO MOVE INSURANCE, PENSION, BANKING BILLS IN PARLIAMENT

* 50 BLN RUPEES TO SIDBI FOR REFINANCING SMALL FIRMS FY12

* NEED TO REVISIT EXACT DEFINITION FOR FINCL BUDGET CONCEPTS

* CENTRAL ELECTRONIC REGISTRY TO PREVENT LOAN SCAMS

* NEW SERIES OF COINS WITH INDIAN RUPEE SYMBOL SOON

* TO AMEND THE INDIAN STAMP ACT

TODAY MARKETS WOULD OPEN POSITIVE TRACKING POSITIVE CLOSE IN AMERICAN MARKETS. IF NIFTY TRADES ABOVE 5350 THEN LIKELY TO MAKE AN UPMOVE TO 5392 AND THEN TO 5425 AND ANY BREAK AND CLOSE ABOVE 5425 WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO 5460 LEVELS AND THEN TO 5500 LEVELS IN A VERY SHORT SPAN. IF NIFTY TRADES BELOW 5300 THEN LIKELY TO MAKE ITS DOWNWARD JOURNEY 5275 AND THEN TO 5240. IF NIFTY DOESN’T HOLD 5240 LEVEL AND TRADES BELOW THEN, NIFTY WOULD COME DOWN TO 5200 LEVELS WHERE IT MAY TAKE GOOD SUPPORT BUT IF NIFTY HAPPENS TO CLOSE BELOW 5200 LEVELS WE CAN BE REST ASSURED THAT NIFTY WOULD COME DOWN MUCH MUCH LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.

INTRADAY TIPS FOR 28 FEBRUARY 2011

GOOD MORNING!!!

MARKETS OPENED THE DAY ON A POSITIVE NOTE AHEAD OF RAILWAY BUDGET AS THERE WAS GOOD AMOUNT BUYING INTEREST SHOWN BY INVESTORS IN RAILWAY RELATED STOCKS, MARKETS WERE VOLATILE AND SEE-SAWED IN A RANGE OF ABOUT 500 POINTS AS INVESTORS STAYED NERVOUS TO OPEN LONG POSITIONS AT HIGHER LEVELS. THE BOURSES WENT FOR SOME SHORT RALLIES BUT THEY REMAINED SHORT LIVED AS PROFIT BOOKING IN SOME KEY HEAVYWEIGHT STOCKS DRAGGED THE INDICES BACK. THE LATE SHORT COVERING RALLY WHICH CAME AFTER THE BENCHMARKS DRIFTED INTO THE RED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD HELPED THEM TO EVENTUALLY END THE SESSION ON A POSITIVE NOTE AHEAD OF THE UNION BUDGET. THE KEY FACTOR FOR MARKET TO BLEED IN THE MID MORNING TRADE WAS RAILWAY BUDGET BEING NOT SO LUCRATIVE AND FAILED TO GIVE ANY KIND OF A DIRECTION AND MARKETS. MARKETS CLOSED IN POSITIVE AT THE END OF THE TRADING SESSION WITH MODEST GAINS, BREADTH REMAINED POSITIVE AT THE END OF THE TRADE.

TODAY MARKETS WOULD OPEN BE RANGE BOUND AND HIGHLY VOLATILE AND WE MAY SEE VERY SECTOR SPECIFIC MOVES AHEAD OF BUDGET. WE MAY LIKELY TO SEE STOCKS MOVING HAY WAY, THERE WOULD BE STOCK AND SECTOR SPECIFIC MOVES. ONE IS ADVISED TO STAY VERY CAUTIOUS IN THE MARKETS AND BETTER WAY TO TRADE IN THE MARKET WOULD BE BUYING A STRANGLE AND LEAVING AS WE ANYWAY HAVE AROUND 31 DAYS FOR EXPIRY FOR THE SAME AND WE ARE FORESEEING THE MARKETS TO COME DOWN OR MOVE UP BY AROUND 500 POINTS IN NIFTY. IF NIFTY TRADES 5340 LIKELY TO MOVE UP TO 5380 LEVELS AND BREAK ABOVE THIS POINT WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO 5420 LEVELS AND ANY TRADE OR CLOSE ABOVE THIS POINT WOULD TURN MARKETS ON TO THE POSITIVE SIDE OF THE WAVE AND WOULD SEE A SOLID MOVE IN NEXT FEW SESSIONS. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE IF NIFTY TRADES BELOW 5300 THEN WOULD COME DOWN TO 5260 LEVELS AND BREAK BELOW THIS POINT WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO 5220 LEVELS AND ANY FURTHER TRADE BELOW THIS POINT WOULD DRAG NIFTY BELOW 5200 AND CLOSE BELOW 5200 WE CAN SEE MUCH MORE DOWNSIDE IN THE COMING FEW SESSIONS. ONE NEEDS TO BE VERY CAUTIOUS ON TWO NUMBERS ON THE CLOSING BASIS IN THE MARKETS ONE IS NIFTY ABOVE 5420 LEVELS AND NIFTY BELOW 5200 LEVELS BOTH ARE VERY DANGEROUS IF IT CLOSES ABOVE 5420 WE MAY SEE NIFTY TO MOVE UP MUCH HIGHER AND IF BELOW 5200 THEN WE SEE NIFTY TO FALL MUCH FURTHER FROM THIS POINT.

LONG STRANGLE

BUY 5100 PE AND 5500 CE AND HOLD IT TILL EXPIRY

ONE CAN LOOK AT STOCKS LIKE RECLTD, IFCI AND IDFC FOR LONG STRANGLE

INTRADAY TIPS FOR 25 FEBRUARY 2011

GOOD MORNING!!!

MARKETS BEGAN THE DAY ON A DULL NOTE AS INVESTORS WERE INCLINED IN PROFIT TAKING IN EARLY TRADE TRACKING DISCOURAGING LEADS FROM THE US MARKETS WHICH CONTINUED THEIR DECLINE FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT DAY. THE DAY WAS BUSY IN POSITION SQUARING WITH THE ABSENCE OF POSITIVE TRIGGERS IN THE MARKETS NOTHING WAS REALLY ENCOURAGING AND DRIFTED TO MULTI MONTH LOW WITH HIGHEST EVER VOLUMES RECORDED IN THE HISTORY OF INDIAN STOCK MARKETS. THE FALL WAS PRIMARILY STARTED WITH INFLATION NUMBERS AND THEN SUDDEN SURGE IN THE CRUDE OIL PRICES AND ADDING FUEL TO THE FIRE WAS THE EXPIRY. THESE SERIES OF EVENTS LED THE DECLINE IN THE MARKETS. MAJORITY OF THE STOCKS WERE BATTERED SO BADLY THAT NONE WAS IDENTIFIABLE THEY WERE ABSOLUTELY SHAPELESS. MARKET BREADTH WAS EXTREMELY NEGATIVE THERE WAS NOTHING ENCOURAGING IN THE MARKETS.

TODAY MARKETS WOULD OPEN FLAT TO POSITIVE ON THE FRESH BARGAIN HUNTING AT THE OPENING DAY OF FRESH SERIES, AS LONG AS NIFTY TRADES ABOVE 5250 IT IS WISE TO KEEP AWAY FROM SHORTS. IF NIFTY TRADES ABOVE 5280 LIKELY TO MOVE UP TO 5318 AND THEN TO 5350 LEVELS AND ANY BREAK ABOVE THIS POINT WOULD TAKE IT FURTHER UP TO 5400 LEVELS. ON THE FLIP SIDE IF NIFTY TRADES BELOW 5250 LIKELY TO COME DOWN TO 5210 LEVELS AND BREAK BELOW THIS LEVEL THOUGH MAY HAVE A MINOR SUPPORT AROUND 5200 LEVELS WOULD DRAG DOWN TO 5176 LEVELS AND ANY BREAK BELOW THIS POINT WE CAN SEE NIFTY TO TAKE A PSYCHOLOGICAL SUPPORT AT 5100 LEVELS.

INTRADAY TIPS FOR 24 FEBRUARY 2011

GOOD MORNING!!!

MARKETS BEGAN THE DAY ON A WEAK NOTE AS MOST INVESTORS REMAINED ON THE SIDELINES IN EARLY TRADE TRACKING AMERICAN MARKETS WHICH WITNESSED A HUGE SELL-OFF. MARKETS GYRATED IN A TIGHT RANGE FOR MOST PART OF THE DAY AS MOST TRADERS REMAINED UNCOMFORTABLE TO OPEN FRESH POSITIONS AHEAD OF THE UNION BUDGET DUE ON MONDAY. BUT THE LAST HOURS OF TRADE SAW THE FRONTLINE INDICES BEING DRAGGED TO LOWER THAN LEVELS ON PROFIT BOOKING. THROUGHOUT THE DAY THE MARKETS REMAINED IN THE SIDE LINES AND EVEN THE BREADTH OF THE MARKETS REMAINED FLAT BUT BY THE END OF TRADE, BOURSES CAUGHT UP WITH THE WEAKNESS THAT WAS PREVAILING ACROSS THE GLOBE WITH EUROPEAN MARKETS STRUGGLING TO FIND A BOTTOM AS ONGOING CIVIL UPHEAVAL IN MIDDLE EAST AND A BIG JUMP IN OIL PRICES DUE TO IT, WEIGHED ON THE INVESTORS' MINDS AND WEAKNESS CROPPED IN AND CLOSED THE DAY ON A WEAK NOTE.

TODAY MARKETS WOULD OPEN NEGATIVE AND WOULD REMAIN IN RANGE BOUND AND NIFTY WOULD TRADE ON A HIGH VOLATILITY. IF NIFTY TRADES BELOW 5425 THEN LIKELY TO COME DOWN TO 5400 AND BREAK BELOW THIS LEVEL WOULD TAKE IT TO 5385 AND CLOSE BELOW THIS LEVEL WOULD DRAG NIFTY IN DAYS AHEAD. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE IF NIFTY TRADE ABOVE 5442 THEN WOULD TAKE IT TO 5465 LEVELS AND BREAK ABOVE THIS POINT WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO 5497 LEVELS ANY TRADE ABOVE THIS POINT WOULD TAKE NIFTY FURTHER UPSIDE TO 5521 LEVELS. TODAY ONE SHOULD BE VERY CAUTIOUS IF NIFTY BREACHES BELOW 5400 LEVELS AND TRADES, ONE CAN TAKE A BUY POSITION KEEPING 5400 AS STOPLOSS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY, WE MAY LIKELY TO SEE SOME SHORT COVERING DURING THE DAY WHERE NIFTY WOULD MOVE SLIGHTLY UPSIDE. ONE HAS TO REMEMBER WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH PREMIUMS IN THE OPTIONS TILL BUDGET SESSION (MONDAY) BUT POST BUDGET SESSION DON’T THINK THE PREMIUM WOULD REMAIN HIGH SO ONE CAN EVEN THINK OF TAKING SHORT STRANGLE IN NIFTY FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH FOR SOME DECENT PROFITS.

INTRADAY TIPS FOR 23 FEBRUARY 2011

GOOD MORNING!!!

INDICES BEGAN THE DAY ON A SOMBER NOTE AS NEGATIVE NEWS FLOWS FROM THE ARAB WORLD SPOOKED SENTIMENTS NOT ONLY LOCALLY BUT THROUGHOUT THE ASIA AS WELL. THE BOURSES HAD TO DEAL WITH GEOPOLITICAL RISKS THROUGHOUT THE DAY PROTESTS IN LIBYA AGAINST THE COUNTRY'S LEADER OF 41 YEARS, MUAMMAR GADDAFI INTENSIFIED, WITH SEVERAL CASUALTIES BEING REPORTED IN THE NATION. THE INDEX GYRATED BELOW THE NEUTRAL LINE IN A NARROW BAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OPTIMISTIC MARKET TRIGGERS. BUT THE SECOND HALF SAW THE FRONTLINE INDICES BEING DRAGGED TO LOWER THAN COMFORTABLE LEVELS AS INVESTORS SQUARED OF POSITIONS IN AUTO SHARES ON SPECULATIONS OF A HIKE IN EXCISE DUTY IN THE BUDGET 2011 WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO BE ANNOUNCED THREE WORKING DAYS LATER. MARKETS ARE EXTREMELY FRAGILE AND DISCOURAGING GLOBAL SETUP AND SETTLED THE DAY WITH MODERATE LOSSES GIVEN THE FACT THAT MAJOR ASIAN STOCK MARKETS INCLUDING CHINA AND JAPAN GOT BUTCHERED AROUND TWO PERCENTAGE POINTS. OIL PRICES SEEMED TO CONTROL THE MARKET MOVEMENT IN TRADE AS WITH EVERY SPIKE IN THE GLOBAL PRICES OF CRUDE FOLLOWING ESCALATING CIVIL UPHEAVAL IN LIBYA AND BAHRAIN, THE NERVOUSNESS AMONG TRADERS TRANSLATED INTO POSITION SQUARING. INDIAN CRUDE OIL BASKET HAS SPURTED BEYOND THE PSYCHOLOGICAL $100 PER BARREL LEVEL AS PROTESTS IN LIBYA, ONE OF THE 10 RICHEST OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES, ESCALATED WHILE SUPPLY SIDE PRESSURES THREATENED TO BECOME MORE ACUTE. THANKS TO MUKESH AMBANI FOR THE DEAL WITH BP WHICH REINFORCED THE INDEX HEAVYWEIGHT BY AROUND 3% AND THEREBY CAPPING THE DOWNSIDE RISKS FOR THE INDEX.

TODAY NIFTY WOULD OPEN NEGATIVE TRACKING WEAK CLOSING OF US MARKETS AND EUROPEAN MARKETS ALONG WITH WEAK OPENING OF ASIAN INDICES. TODAY IF NIFTY TRADES BELOW 5464 LIKELY TO COME DOWN TO 5440 AND THEN TO 5420 LEVELS ANY BREAK BELOW THIS POINT WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO 5400 LEVELS WHICH IS A PSYCHOLOGICAL SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY BUT BREAK BELOW THIS LEVEL WOULD TAKE SUPPORT AROUND 5385 WHICH IS CONSIDERED TO BE NEAR TERM SUPPORT WHERE NIFTY MAY NOT BREAK BELOW THIS POINT IN THIS SETTLEMENT BUT IF IT HAPPENS TO BREAK THEN WE CAN SEE NIFTY TO COME DOWN MUCH MORE IN THIS TWO DAYS OF TRADE. ON THE FLIP SIDE IF NIFTY TRADES ABOVE 5478 THEN LIKELY TO MOVE UP TO 5500 AND ANY BREAK ABOVE THIS POINT WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO 5544 LEVELS, ANY CLOSE ABOVE 5500 WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO CLOSE ABOVE 5500 LEVELS IN THE SETTLEMENT.

INTRADAY TIPS FOR 22 FEBRUARY 2011

GOOD MORNING!!!

INDICES THOUGH OPENED FLAT TO NEGATIVE THERE WAS ALL OF A SUDDEN BUYING SEEN ACROSS THE BOARD BUT THERE WERE NO SIGNS OF CONVICTION IN THE TRADE. THE INDEX GYRATED AROUND THE NEUTRAL LINE IN A NARROW BAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OPTIMISTIC MARKET TRIGGERS. BUT BUDGET-RELATED POSITIVE NEWS FLOW AND SOFTENING INFLATION EASED INVESTORS' APPREHENSIONS AS THE INDIECES SAW A BOUNCE BACK POST-NOON. SANGUINE SENTIMENTS IN THE DYING HOURS HELPED THE LOCAL BOURSES PULL THROUGH A SCINTILLATING INTRADAY U-TURN AND SETTLE AROUND THE HIGH POINT OF THE DAY. THE INDICES EVENTUALLY WENT HOME WITH OVER A PERCENT GAIN ON THE INITIAL DAY OF F&O EXPIRY WEEK AND FOUR WORKING DAYS AHEAD OF THE BUDGET 2011.

TODAY NIFTY WOULD OPEN NEGATIVE TRACKING WEAK GLOBAL EUROPEAN MARKETS AND ASIAN INDICES. THOUGH NIFTY LOOKED POSITIVE AT THE LAST DAYS TRADE AND CLOSING, THERE IS LOT OF NEGATIVE SIGNS UNDERNEATH THE MARKETS WHICH ARE STILL LEFT UNATTENDED BY THE BULLS, WHERE ONE NEEDS TO BE VERY CAREFUL ON THE POSITIVE FRONT OF NIFTY. IF NIFTY TRADES BELOW 5512 THEN LIKELY TO COME DOWN TO 5484 AND THEN BREAK BELOW THAT WOULD TAKE IT TO 5450 AND ANY BREAK BELOW THIS POINT IS AGAIN VERY CRUCIAL WOULD NOT LET NIFTY TO REVERSE AS IT DID IN THE LAST DAY WOULD DRAG NIFTY TO FURTHER DOWNSIDE. IF NIFTY HAPPENS TO CLOSE BELOW 5400 THEN ONE CAN SEE NIFTY TO BREACH PREVIOUS LOWS I.E., 5200 AS WELL AND GO DOWN FURTHER MORE. ON THE FLIP SIDE IF NIFTY TRADES ABOVE 5541 THEN LIKELY TO MOVE UP TO 5560 AND THEN TO 5580 LEVELS AND ANY BREAK ABOVE THIS POINT WOULD TAKE NIFTY TO 5600 LEVELS ONE NEEDS TO BE VERY CAREFUL AT 5580 LEVELS IF IT DOESN’T SUSTAIN MAY DRAG NIFTY DOWN AND IF IT BREACHES THEN MAY GO UP TO 5600 LEVELS BUT ANY UPSIDE IN NIFTY THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY THAT NIFTY WOULD COME DOWN ALL OF A SUDDEN. ONE NEEDS TO KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY INCLINE FROM THIS POINT IS CONSIDERED TO BE A SELLING POINT THAN A BUYING POINT.

BUY MOTHERSON SUMI ABOVE 193.75 SL 191 TGT 198/200/203
BUY TIME TECHNOPLAST ABOVE 56.40 SL 55.85 TGT 58/59/60